Canelo Silences a Bully! Mayweather vs Canelo Tonight
By Christian Giudice
Chalk it up to network pressure or simply ego, Mayweather has chosen a fighter with a unique blend of speed and power…
Deep down every fighter knows if he has done enough in the sport to warrant being considered an all-time great. Occasionally, those same fighters inflate their own worth or refuse to acknowledge the mistakes they made along the way. When the discussion turns to Floyd Mayweather Jr., whether one likes him or despises him, it would be unfair not to recognize his greatness.
Critics can point to all of the reasons as to why Mayweather (44-0, 26 KOs) has been dominant for so long. It isn’t because he cautiously chooses his opponents, or refuses to fight established fighters in their prime, and it definitely has nothing to do with luck or any gift decisions he has received. Think of all the great fighters of the last 25 years; how many of them never let their fans down or had an off night? When it comes to sustained talent and longevity, there is not another professional athlete who compares with Mayweather. He’s been that good—and stayed undefeated—for that long. There have been so many great fighters who were set to replace him. None of them could accomplish it.
Until now.
Every great fighter also miscalculates at some point in his career, and Mayweather has made the biggest mistake of his career. Chalk it up to network pressure or simply ego, Mayweather has chosen a fighter with a unique blend of speed and power. More importantly, he has chosen a fighter with the physical tools to beat him. On Saturday in Las Vegas, 23-year-old Canelo Alvarez (42-0-1 30 KOs) will finally get the opportunity of a lifetime—to fight a legend.
Mindset
Canelo is going into this fight with the same inscrutable demeanor that he has entered other big fights. He has already eclipsed some of the classic Mexican legends in terms of popularity. Yet, he doesn’t appear overwhelmed; at least, not yet. Canelo has exhibited a level of maturity that helps shield him from giving in to any provocations from Mayweather or showing him too much respect in the process. When Sugar Ray Leonard fought Roberto Duran in Montreal, he underestimated the intense pressure of the bout and was unable to detach himself from the personal anger he held for Duran.
During this publicity tour, Canelo knew better than to jaw with and provoke Floyd as Victor Ortiz did, and he hasn’t conceded too much respect to Mayweather (as Marvin Hagler did when he fought Duran). He’s balanced and clear about what he’s going to do in a month. Translation: Emotionally, Canelo has stayed balanced, and he won’t let any outside influences distract him from the fight.
Weight issue
(** Canelo weighed in at 152, Mayweather weighed in at 150.5)
Regarding the upcoming matchup, manager/promoter Don Chargin added, “It doesn’t matter who’s the bigger man, unless that fighter knows how to benefit from the excess weight.” The mandated 30-day weight report means nothing. If Canelo (168) hadn’t been training well and he had 14 pounds to lose, then the issue becomes a problem. Canelo’s too intelligent for that to happen. The big question is, will he fight like the bigger, stronger man? Too often Floyd is anointed the smaller fighter and then controls the fight either with his speed on the outside or strength while fighting on the inside.
Nevertheless, if Canelo can use his strength and weight advantage to trap Mayweather along the ropes and land short hooks and uppercuts, then he has accomplished more than any of the previous six opponents. Canelo loves throwing that right cross and following it up with a left hook to the body, but he won’t have that same success against Mayweather, whose shoulder roll leaves his opponent nothing to hit. Does that mean Canelo has no chance? No, it just means he will have to be constantly be adapting to what Mayweather is presenting him. Translation: He can’t come in with a single gameplan and blindly stick to it.
Accuracy
Nobody in the sport is as judicious with his punches as Mayweather is. He never wastes punches and is constantly assessing his opponent throughout the fight to figure out what does and doesn’t work. It’s no secret that most of his opponents are so demoralized by the mid-to-late rounds that the only recourse they turn to is a lucky knockout punch. “Lucky” doesn’t work against Mayweather. He has an efficient jab when he needs it and the straight right is nearly impossible to neutralize.
At his worst, Canelo has rounds where he hardly throws a jab, and misses a majority of his punches. Against Austin Trout he missed ordinary punches because he was not in great shape and often out of position, but still found a way to win. Remember, Trout was the same guy who comfortably fought at 160, and recently battered Miguel Cotto. At his best, Canelo has paralyzed opponents with that left hook to the body followed by the right uppercut. Sure, he misses a lot of punches, but he also throws a lot of punches. The accumulation factor is key to Canelo’s success, as he systematically breaks opponents down with a consistent attack each round. Translation: For the first time in a long time, there is fear that if Canelo connects, Mayweather is in serious trouble. No one would admit they had the same fear with Ortiz, Guerrero, or Marquez.
Chin and Defense
It is hard to argue against Mayweather in this category. He has set a standard for his defensive skills. Movement, reflexes, and ring intelligence are his main attributes, and everything he does is for a reason. Unlike a lot of defensive geniuses (Wilfred Benitez), Mayweather’s defense always leads to putting himself in position to attack his opponent. As for his chin, Mayweather has been tested on several occasions by Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, and Miguel Cotto to name a few, but always comes out on top. Rarely, does Mayweather get hit with a solid punch, and when he does, he freezes, holds, recovers quickly, and then settles down. Defensively, Canelo has improved considerably with his feints and head movement, and he has shown no ill effects from fights where he has absorbed significant punishment. Translation: Mayweather is on another level defensively, and can go fights without being in any significant danger.
Conditioning
No fighter will win this battle against Mayweather. It may be true that he is one of the hardest working athletes of all time. How do you justify the fact that he’s still at his best late in his thirties in such a brutal sport? You’re just not going to outwork him. Since Canelo has been involved in so many early stoppages, we have to look at the Trout fight for reference. Whether he merely miscalculated in his training or wasn’t as intense as he needed to be, the stamina wasn’t evident in that fight. Persevering, yet clearly winded through the late rounds, the 23-year-old fighter should have been energized as he closed out that fight. Translation: If Canelo’s not in superb condition on Saturday, he has absolutely no chance of winning. Mayweather will eat him alive. Conversely, I think he will learn and come ready to fight 12 rounds easily.
Power
Both fighters hit hard; there’s no denying that fact. Once Mayweather has his opponent in a vulnerable position, he’s relentless in different ways than Canelo. Not a typical one-punch KO artist, Mayweather exploits an opponent’s weakness and has a keen sense when to take over. When he does dominate, he lands 60 percent of his power shots as he did against Robert Guerrero. Most of those power shots were compliments of his vaunted right hand—a shotgun blast. Occasionally, he will utilize a quick, hard jab to set up his right hand as he did against Mosley. In a similar vein, Sugar Ray Leonard employed a vicious right hand that he used to club down on opponents.
Surprisingly, it is not just the straight right, but the hook that Canelo must beware of. Mayweather’s check hook demolished an off-balance Ricky Hatton, and the same left hook hurt the smaller version of Juan Manuel Marquez. Similarly, Canelo dismantled the smaller Josesito Lopez with body shots and a punishing right cross.
When it comes to pure, consistent power shots, Canelo relies on devastating combinations, often punctuated by doubling up the left hook. Yet, Canelo knocked down Trout with the straight right and hurt him on a couple occasions with the uppercut. For Canelo to be successful, he has to be on the offensive, but not reckless. He is big enough to bully Mayweather, and he needs to set the pace of the fight. Fighters who tend to rush Mayweather without establishing a jab play into his gameplan. Unlike Mayweather, Canelo can’t fight in retreat mode, and he shouldn’t. Translation: Both fighters punch hard, but Canelo is perceived as more of a power puncher and needs to adopt that mentality on Saturday.
Speed
There are only a few guys in the past 25-30 years who exhibited similar hand speed to Mayweather. In his prime, Hector Camacho had lightning fast hands as did Roy Jones Jr. Philadelphia welterweight Meldrick Taylor and Leonard also had exceptionally quick hands. It’s fair to say that at 36 years old, Mayweather has been able to maintain his speed unlike those fighters. His speed helps him make up for any lapses in other areas. However, he will need to keep Canelo at a distance, and that may not be possible. That being said, Canelo has decent speed, and throws beautiful combinations in the process. As quick as Mayweather is, he can’t do to Canelo what he accomplished against Guerrero.Translation: Mayweather may have the edge in speed, but it won’t determine the outcome of the fight.
Prediction
Canelo Alvarez will be the first to prove to Floyd Mayweather that he’s no longer the bully. He will brutalize him with debilitating hooks to the body, followed by that staple uppercut that will change the tenor of the fight. When Mayweather tries to counter with the right hand or re-establish the jab, it will be too late. The reservoir of strength and fortitude in the second half of the fight that has always been a game changer for Mayweather won’t be accessible anymore. Alvarez won’t fade in the late rounds either. He will be prepared to fight the entire 12 rounds, gaining momentum in the late rounds. For so long, Mayweather has ruled the sport with a blend of ring genius and arrogance. His reign has been defined by a vindictive nature both in and outside the ring. Now, he finally meets someone who can actually do something about it. Look for Canelo to punish Mayweather on his way to a unanimous decision.
Christian Giudice is the author of Beloved Warrior: The Rise and Fall of Alexis Arguello andHands of Stone: The Life and Legend of Roberto Duran.
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